Forecasting and optimization of wind generation in energy markets. FOWGEM

Introduction and objectives of the project

The coordinated project " Forecasting and Optimization of Wind Generation in Energy Markets" ( FOWGEM) aims at aplying a global approach to the problem of the optimal integration of the wind-enery generation of a generation company in the wholesale electricity market through the combination of statistical forecasting models, mathematical programming models for electricity markets and optimization algorithms. In the framework of the Spanish Strategy for Science and Technology and Innovation 2013-2020 this project contributes fundamentally to challenge 3, " safe, sustainable and clean energy ." Indeed, the forecasting and optimization models and procedures that will be developed in this project, are the necessary mechanisms to allow the competitive and safe integration of wind-energy generation in the multiple-markets based wholesale national energy production system. The FOWGEM project adopts an original and global approach to this problem that combines advanced methodologies in the area of statistics, mathematical modeling of energy markets and theoretical and computatitonal optimization that were developed in several previous projects of the Plan Nacional by the groups of the Universidad Politècnica de Catalunya and the Universidad Pontificia de Comillas . The main objectives of the project are:
  1. To develop forecasting models for wind-energy generation and electricity prices for the spot and ancillary electricity markets as a base for the optimal planning of a generation companies production.
  2. To develop mathematical programming models for the optimal integration of wind-energy production of the generation companies in the wholesale spot and ancillary services electricity market based on the results of the forecasting models for the wind-energy generation and market prices.
  3. To develop and implement efficient optimization algorithms for the large scale mixed linear and quadratic programming problems arising in real instances of the models for the integration of wind-energy production.
Regarding the social and economic impact of this project, the predictive models for wind-energy generation and market prices, together with the optimization models for the optimal integration of the wind-energy, will indicate power companies how to optimally coordinate their dispatchable generation with the estocastic wind-energy generation. As a result, the expected cost of the total production will be minimized (which means less fossil fuel consumption with the consequent positive impact on the environment ) and also the wind-energy spillage will be minimized. From the point of view of scientific and technical impact , the main feature of this project is its global an multidiciplinar approach through a methodological cycle that combines statistical methods, mathematical modeling of electricity markets and optimization techniques, in order to tackle with an actual problem concerning generation companies with real impacts on the national economy and environment. It is to mention the collaboration as EPO of two of the major Spanish gneration companies, Gas Natural Fenosa and Iberdrola, together with the Institute for Energy Research (IREC ), the major research institution in Catalonia in the field of energy.